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2. EAMG - Macro Tear Sheet – Recent Market Volatility Summary By separating the noise from the signals, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap technology names is likely to continue. Recent market volatility, triggered by a multitude of factors that include the unwind of the carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and U.S. economic data, may present more investment opportunities for long-term outperformance. Recall over the past year that the majority of U.S. stock market performance came from a limited number of mega-cap technology companies and, in our view, moving forward it will be prudent to analyze the source of returns as rapid market rotations may punish overly-concentrated portfolios.
   
   
   Inflation Slows (July 11) – Headline U.S. inflation readings increased 3.0% year-over-year in June, decelerating from May (3.3%). With prices slowing ahead of forecasts but economic growth remaining strong, investors became more confident regarding the prospects of an economic soft landing.
   Outcome: market strength broadened with traders rotating out of highly concentrated areas of the market (“Fabulous 5”) and into more economically sensitive stocks that had been left behind.
   
   • Big Tech Earnings (July 23 – Aug 1) – High profile mega-cap technology companies – including many members of the Magnificent 7 – reported earnings growth that generally surpassed expectations as margins remained healthy. That said, investors were more focused on spending towards AI-initiatives, rewarding businesses with greater success translating their AI investments into higher sales. 
   Outcome: this trend is evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) after releasing their quarterly earnings. The limited number of companies that contributed to the returns of the S&P 500 failed to impress investors, extending the rotation into other areas of the market.
   
   • Caution is Brewing – Following a strong rally of economically sensitive pockets of the market, notably a breakout of returns from U.S. small cap companies, the low volatility factor, which tends to outperform during times of stress, moved in sync with the small caps’ strength.
   Outcome: with a lack of fundamental justification supporting small cap performance, markets showed signs of caution.
   
   • Central Bank Decisions (July 31)– The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged during its July meeting, in line with market expectations, reiterating committee members’ need for greater confidence that inflation would continue to subside. That said, policymakers signaled a reduction in policy rates could be a possibility in the coming meetings. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases – restrictive monetary policy maneuvers aimed at backstopping the depreciating Japanese currency.
   Outcome: the bifurcation between the BoJ and most other major central banks sparked a sharp appreciation of the yen and a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade (see below for explanation).
   
   • Growth Scare (August 2)– In early August, a downside surprise in U.S. nonfarm payrolls (114k actual versus 175k expected) and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, higher than the 4.1% that was expected and up from 3.5% a year ago triggered concerns of a cooling labor market.
   Outcome: speculation swelled surrounding the pace of rate cuts with market participants expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates as much as 125bps over the next 3 policy meetings, up from 50-75bps as of the end of July. Against this backdrop, the ongoing unwind of the yen carry trade accelerated.
   
   Yen Carry Trade Explained
   • Simply put, investors have been borrowing Japanese yen – a low yielding currency – to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. The primary risks in a carry trade can include the uncertainty of foreign exchange rates (if unhedged), as well as changes to expectations of the underlying yields, among other risks. Over the last 2 decades, the BoJ has implemented an ultra-low interest rate monetary policy to combat deflation and stimulate growth. Furthermore, investors were emboldened by the Japanese yen’s ~53% depreciation versus the U.S. dollar over the last 10 years. With the BoJ hiking its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases, the yen rallied abruptly. Consequently, highly leveraged investors have had to exit their long positions in riskier assets to repay their borrowed yen exposure.
   
   Peak Carry Trade Unwind – Buying Opportunity
   • Peak carry trade unwind, which implies heightened panic levels, has historically created an attractive buying environment. That said, we are focused on companies that have demonstrated robust earnings growth and healthy leverage. Given the unprecedented level of market concentration over the last year, we view the unwind of the carry trade as another catalyst for investors to rotate out of the “Fabulous 5”.
   
   Our Findings:
   We found that the peak unwind of the carry trade may be a buying opportunity. At present, the current level of the unwind is similar to many notable market bottoms, including the Great Financial Crisis (2008), the European debt crisis (2010), the oil crash (2014), the subsequent emerging market crisis (2015), the Covid-19 crash (2020), and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (2023). We assessed the degree of the unwind by looking at the one-month implied volatility between three currency pairs, U.S. Dollar/Yen, Australian Dollar/Yen, and Euro/Yen. Implied volatility is a measure of the expected future volatility of the underlying assets over a given time period. Amid strong earnings growth and steady margins from quality businesses within the U.S. market, the fundamental backdrop suggests that businesses outside the concentrated AI-darlings may drive the next leg of market returns.
   
   Downloadable Copy
    

   Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
   Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

   
   ADVISOR USE ONLY
   
   Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
3. New illustration software now available!
   We have updated our illustration software. Please be sure to download the latest version:
    2023-3 (August 2023).
   
   - Web-based illustration software on secure EquiNet^® (log in required)
   - Desktop illustration software
   
   We have new rates for our Equimax® Wealth Accumulator and Estate Builder plans. Please refer to our Transition Rules for all the details on processing your applications.
   
   Need more information?
   For information on these changes, please contact your Equitable Life wholesaler. 
   
   
   _^® denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
4. 2022 brings a new year of retirement savings opportunities

   As a new year begins, you will start to reach out to your clients about the upcoming Retirement Savings Plan deadline, March 1, 2022. This year, connect with your clients through social media, video chats, emails or even in-person. Try Equitable’s Case Studies, Prospecting Letters, Video and Equitable Blog on EquiNet® to make the most of your meetings. Designed for each specific target group, these sales strategies can help initiate a conversation about retirement savings goals.
   
   To learn more about Retirement Savings Plans, click here.

5. EQUIMAX PARTICIPATING WHOLE LIFE – your whole life solution Recently, we made some exciting changes for Equimax Estate Builder^® and Equimax Wealth Accumulator^®.
   
   These exciting enhancements launched in February make Equimax even more robust, simpler and cost effective, to ensure it continues to be the preferred participating whole life solution for clients and advisors alike.
    
   Visit our splash page and watch our informative video to learn more and start selling the enhanced Equimax today.
    
   Plus, visit our Equimax product page on EquiNet^®, then click on the Marketing Materials tab for the latest Equimax marketing materials.
    
   Need more information? Please contact your local wholesaler.
   
   
   
   ^® and ^TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
6. Get Client Focused: Turning Compliance into Your Advantage

   Join Equitable Life and guest speaker, April-Lynn Levitt, CFP,  Business Coach, The Personal Coach, to learn how to be compliant in today’s environment and create client-focused review meetings:

   •   Understand the new requirements and the best practices for implementing the new requirements into your practice.

   •   Go beyond “ticking the boxes” to build an exceptional client experience.

   •   Learn to use your review process to stimulate referrals and update compliance documents seamlessly.

   We are pleased to provide you with a recorded version of April-Lynn Levitt’s presentation, “Get Client Focused: Turning Compliance into Your Advantage” click here

   This webinar is available in English only.

   ® denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
   
   Posted June 6, 2023
    
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