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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
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Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - October 2022
Introducing new Gender Affirmation Coverage for group benefits plans
Providing an inclusive benefits plan can play a critical role in fostering a workplace culture that welcomes diversity and helps employees thrive. While most provinces cover the cost of gender-affirming surgery, each person has unique needs. Some may require procedures that are not publicly covered.
That’s why we’re pleased to introduce a new coverage option for gender affirmation surgical procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. Gender Affirmation Coverage helps plan sponsors to close the gap where provincial health coverage ends.Coverage details and eligibility
Gender Affirmation Coverage can be added to any Equitable Life plan with an in-force Extended Health Care plan. It provides coverage for gender-affirming procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. This might include tracheal (Adam’s apple) shaving and voice surgery. It will also cover some additional procedures to further align the plan member’s features to the transitioned gender, such as facial bone reduction and cheek augmentation. This makes a wider variety of gender-affirming surgeries accessible to plan members and helps minimize their out-of-pocket costs.
Plan members are eligible for coverage with a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a qualified health care professional.Offering a more inclusive benefits plan
The coverage provides one more way for your clients to offer more inclusive coverage and to offer holistic support to their plan members undergoing a gender transition. We have developed this coverage as a complement to our existing coverage options, including Health Care Spending Accounts (HCSAs), Taxable Spending Accounts (TSAs), Extended Health Care and drug coverage, and Employee and Family Assistance Programs, all of which can provide support to plan members undergoing gender affirmation.
We regularly review our products to ensure that they’re meeting your clients’ needs, and we’re committed to offering products that support diversity, equity and inclusion.
We also continue to review our forms, documents and processes to make them more inclusive. This includes reviewing our online plan member enrolment (OPME) tool to allow for more flexibility with the way plan members identify their gender.Gender affirmation and mental well-being
Gender affirmation procedures can lead to improved mental health outcomes for those with gender dysphoria, as most report an improvement in their quality of life following the procedures. Gender dysphoria may occur when a person’s assigned sex at birth does not match their identity, and people experiencing gender dysphoria typically report psychological and emotional distress, including symptoms of depression or anxiety. By offering coverage where provincial health coverage ends, your clients can support plan members as they seek procedures that align their body presentation with their self-identified gender.
Advantages at a glance
Advantages for plan members include:- Reimbursement for some procedures and expenses, leading to fewer out-of-pocket costs
- May experience improved mental health outcomes after surgery
- A benefits plan that promotes a culture of diversity, equity and inclusion, which may build employee loyalty
- Support for plan member mental health to help those with gender dysphoria thrive
The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey results are in!
Equitable Life is proud to be a Platinum sponsor for The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey, Canada’s leading survey on workplace benefits plans. This year’s survey report highlights many fascinating insights across a wide variety of benefits topics, including:- A focus on mental health for both plan sponsors and plan members
- The repercussions of the "shadow" pandemic due to health care delays
- Trends in plan members' overall perceptions of their health benefits plans
- The types of benefits getting more attention from plan members
- The role of remote work in plan member satisfaction
We’re committed to helping you and your clients navigate the evolving landscape of employee benefits in Canada by contributing to this vibrant industry community. To read the full report, visit Benefits Canada.
HCSA and TSA manual allocation reminder
If your clients’ Health Care Spending Account (HCSA) and/or Taxable Spending Account (TSA) have manual allocations, they need to allocate these amounts to plan members each year. Clients should review their plan members’ profiles on EquitableHealth.ca to ensure they have received their allocation(s) for the current benefit year. Your clients may also order HCSA and TSA forfeiture reports on EquitableHealth.ca.
If your clients have Plan Administrator update access on EquitableHealth.ca, they can update these amounts online by doing the following:- Select View certificate
- Select Health Care Spending Account or Taxable Spending Account
- Select Update Allocation in Task Center
- Enter amount in Revised Allocation Amount
- Override Reason – Plan Administrator Request
- Select Save
- Select Reports
- Select New
- Select Next
- Select HCSA or TSA Totals by Plan Member
- Select Next
- Enter end date of 12/31/2022
- Select Next
- Select Finish
- View Report
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January 2024 eNews
In this issue:
- Equitable scores high marks with group advisors*
- REMINDER: Equitable's National Biosimilar Program starts in March*
- 2024 dental fee guide updates*
- Homewood Health wins HR Reporter Reader's Choice award for EFAP excellence*
Equitable scores high marks with group advisors*
Equitable ranked first for operational service among major group insurers in a recent study of Canadian group benefits advisors.
NMG Consulting, a leading global consulting firm, conducted in-depth interviews with 146 Canadian group benefits brokers, consultants, MGAs and third-party administrators between May and August 2023 for its annual Canadian Group Benefits Study. Based on these interviews, NMG ranked group insurers in six categories, ranging from operational management to technology.
Nationally, Equitable ranked among the top three in five of the six main categories, including number one for Operational Management:Category Ranking Operational management 1st Initiatives (including seminars & training) 2nd Technology 3rd Underwriting & claims management 3rd Relationship management 3rd
“Advisors regard us highly in many categories. That’s a testament to our mutual status and ability to focus exclusively on our clients and advisor partnerships,” said Marc Avaria, Executive Vice President, Group Insurance Division. “We are truly working together to build strong, enduring and aligned partnerships with our clients and advisors.”
“We’re delighted with these results and are committed to continuously advancing our delivery of a better benefits experience for our clients and advisors,” added Avaria.More highlights from the latest NMG survey
Nationally, we ranked first in seven subcategories in Operational Management, including:- Overall service to intermediaries,
- Overall service to plan sponsors,
- New quote process,
- Plan implementation,
- Renewal process,
- Accuracy and timeliness of reporting and billing, and
- Administration quality and responsiveness
And we were rated strongly in Technology, finishing in the top three for:- Overall technology for Intermediary (2nd)
- Member experience (3rd)
- Quality of technology for the plan sponsor (2nd)
- Quality of mobile application (2nd)
REMINDER: Equitable's National Biosimilar Program starts in March*
In October 2023 we announced the upcoming launch of our national biosimilar program. Starting March 1, 2024, we are expanding our biosimilar switch initiatives to provide a single, nationwide** program.
Why we’re making the switch
Over the past few years, most provinces have introduced policies to delist some originator biologic drugs. They require most patients to switch to biosimilar versions of those drugs to be eligible for coverage under their public drug plans. Soon, it is expected that all provincial drug plans will cover only biosimilars.
Equitable’s National Biosimilar Program simplifies drug plan coverage by replacing our provincial programs. It also protects clients from additional drug costs while offering access to lower-cost biosimilars deemed equally safe and effective by Health Canada.
How will this affect clients' drug plans?
Because we have already introduced biosimilar switch initiatives in most provinces, the impact of this change will be minimal. It will primarily affect plan members in provinces or territories where we haven’t already required the switch to biosimilars. It will also affect plan members who are taking biosimilars that were not originally included in the switch initiative for their province.
Regardless of where they live, plan members across Canada will no longer be eligible for most originator biologic drugs if they have a condition for which Health Canada has approved a lower-cost biosimilar version of the drug. Plan members already taking the originator biologic will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug to maintain coverage under their Equitable plan. We will support their transition with education, personalized communication, and resources.
Advance notice for plan members
We contacted affected claimants in early December to give them enough time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage.
If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.
** Excludes plan members in Quebec who participate in a separate provincial program.
2024 dental fee guide updates*
Each year, Provincial and Territorial Dental Associations publish fee guides. Equitable uses these guides to help determine the reimbursement limits for dental procedures.
For your reference, you may wish to refer to the 2024 list of the average dental fee increases for general practitioners.
Homewood Health wins HR Reporter Reader's Choice award for EFAP excellence*
Equitable is proud to congratulate our Employee and Family Assistance Plan (EFAP) partner, Homewood Health®, for winning the Canadian HR Reporter 2023 Reader’s Choice Award in Employee Assistance Plan services. Homewood’s EFAP provides confidential support for a range of health, family, money, and work issues through face-to-face, phone, email, chat, or video counselling. The award recognizes their high standards in counselling and mental health support services.
The annual Reader’s Choice Awards identify organizations that provide outstanding expertise and services for HR professionals and employers across Canada. Those organizations provide valuable information on useful, innovative HR and employee benefits products and programs, in categories such as recruitment, mental health services, employee engagement programs, and more.
Sharing Homewood Health with your clients
Since 2019, we have worked with Homewood to provide mental health services for Equitable benefits plan members.
Your clients can access Homewood Health’s award-winning EFAP for an additional fee by adding it to their benefits plan. Services are available 24/7, 365 days a year.
All Equitable clients also have free access to Homewood Health Online in their benefits plan. Homewood Online provides a variety of helpful wellness resources, including:
- Homeweb, an online and mobile health and wellness portal,
- Health Risk Assessment, a group of assessment tools to help plan members identify and overcome health and wellness barriers, and
- Online Internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) through Sentio to manage symptoms of anxiety and/or depression.
Questions
To learn more about Homewood Health’s services, contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.
- [pdf] Personalized Brochure - Benefits of Segregated Funds in a Tax-Free Savings Account
- [pdf] Personalized Brochure - Benefits of segregated funds in a Tax-free Savings Account
- [pdf] When it is time to convert your RSP to a RIF
- [pdf] Protecting your plan
- [pdf] Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA)