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Market Commentary January 2025
Key Takeaways
Full year 2024:
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Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
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Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
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Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.
Fourth Quarter:
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Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
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Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
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Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.
Economic and Market Update
Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.
In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.
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Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.
Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.
Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.
Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.
Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLYMark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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- Anti-money Laundering Legislation Requirements Summary
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Changes to coverage of Humira in BC
BC Pharmacare recently announced it is adding Humira to the list of drugs included in its ongoing initiative to switch patients to biosimilar versions of high-cost biologics. Patients taking Humira for most conditions will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug by Oct. 7, 2021 to maintain coverage under the public plan.
Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is also known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are also biologics. They are highly similar to the originator biologic drugs they are based on, and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.
How we are responding to protect our clients
To help prevent this change from resulting in additional costs for our clients’ drug plans, while still providing plan members with access to safe and effective medications, we will no longer cover Humira for plan members in BC. Effective Oct. 7, 2021, claimants currently taking Humira will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug to maintain coverage under their Equitable Life plan.
We will be communicating this change to plan administrators later this week. And we will be communicating with affected claimants in early August to allow ample time to change their prescription and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage.
If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
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Give clients guaranteed retirement income with Payout Annuities
With increased market volatility and interest rates higher than we have seen for much of the past decade, now is a great time to consider payout annuities. Payout annuities can provide regular guaranteed income regardless of how markets perform.
Clients using only a Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWP) for retirement income are potentially vulnerable during times of market volatility due to the sequence-of-returns risk.1 When markets are down, more units are redeemed to cover income needs. When markets later rise, clients are not able to participate fully in the recovery because more units were redeemed to provide income. That is why having a guaranteed income component, like a payout annuity, as part of an overall retirement strategy is so important.
Two great reasons to consider Equitable Life® for your payout annuity business:
1. Choose from a variety of payout annuity options including:
A. Life Annuity – guaranteed income for one life
B. Joint Life Annuity – guaranteed income for two lives
C. Term Certain – guaranteed income for a specific period of time (5 to 30 years)
D. Term Certain to Age 90 – guaranteed income until age 90
2. Attractive rates, particularly in Registered and Term Certain Annuities

For more information, please contact your Equitable Life Regional Investment Sales Manager.
1Sequence-of-returns risk, or sequence risk, is the risk that an investor will experience negative portfolio returns very late in their working life and/or early in retirement.
® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. -
Cloud DX, Signs Contract with Heart Centre
Our partner, Cloud DX, has signed a 3-year contract with an Ontario hospital to help put patients with congestive heart failure at ease.
Cloud DX’s digital health platform works to improve healthcare delivery, provide better care outcomes, and lessen the burden on our national healthcare system. Now, an Ontario heart centre will use the Cloud DX platform to improve its patient monitoring services.
Cloud DX is a value-added service for Equitable Life’s Critical Illness claimants. Cloud DX delivers clinical grade hardware directly to the client so that they can remotely monitor the client’s vitals to help ensure they stay on the road to recovery*.
To learn more about our partnership with CloudDX, click here or contact your local wholesaler.
Watch our video on YouTube or Vimeo!
*Cloud DX is a non-contractual benefit and may be withdrawn or changed by Equitable Life® at any time. To be eligible for the Cloud DX offering, a claimant must be age 12 or older and have received payment on or after February 12, 2022 for a covered critical condition benefit under an individual critical illness insurance policy issued by Equitable Life. An early detection benefit payment does not qualify. Equitable Life pays for 6 months of Cloud DX subscription fees. If the claimant wishes to continue the Cloud DX service after 6 months, they will be responsible for the cost. The claimant must supply their own device to connect to Cloud DX app– a laptop, tablet or cellphone. As well, the claimant needs to supply their own data or internet service.
® and TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. -
Questions about eDelivery? New eDelivery page
Find information on the eDelivery process quickly with our new eDelivery of a Contract landing page.


We’ve made it easier to get the information you need to electronically deliver the insurance contract promptly.
eDelivery makes it quick and easy, and our new landing page ensures you’re able to find the information you need regarding the New Business eDelivery process, or the Policy Change and Conversions eDelivery process. You can find various resources in the Links section on the right-hand side of each page to help you along the way.
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Smarter saving with GIA Laddering
Want to show clients how to grow their savings in smart ways? Try Guaranteed Interest Account (GIA) laddering—a simple strategy that helps clients earn more interest and stay flexible.
How does it work?
Instead of a client putting all their money into one-year GIAs, laddering means splitting the money into different GIAs with different end dates. This way clients can:
• Earn better interest rates.• Get access to part of their money every year.• Be ready if interest rates go up or down.Use our new calculator
Equitable’s new GIA Laddering Calculator shows clients how this strategy compares to putting all their money in one-year GIAs each year. It helps clients see which option could give them more money over time.
Contact your Director, Investment Sales to see how laddering can work for clients.
Date posted: September 15, 2025 -
New Dividend Scale Effective July 1, 2023!
Equitable Life’s Board of Directors has approved a change to the dividend scale* for the period July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024.
- The interest rate we use for the dividend scale will go from 6.05% to 6.25% on July 1, 2023.
- Other factors used to decide the dividend scale will stay the same.
- The interest rate for participating whole life policies with dividends on deposit will stay the same at 2.25%.
- The policy loan interest rate** will go from 6.20% to 6.50% on June 30, 2023
More good news!
Once the next dividend scale year starts, we expect policyholder dividends to be close to $105 million until the end of June 2024.
Learn more
- Advisor Dividend Scale Notice
- Client Dividend Scale Notice
- Dividend Information Page
Did you miss our virtual Spring Update & 2023 Dividend Scale Announcement? Watch it now:

(*The French and Chinese events will be partially in English, with sub-titles on screen).
TOGETHER – Protecting Today – Preparing Tomorrow™
As a MUTUAL we provide financial security DIFFERENTLY by focusing exclusively on our CLIENTS.
*Dividends are not guaranteed and are paid at the sole discretion of the Board of Directors. Dividends may be subject to taxation. Dividends will vary based on the actual investment returns in the Participating Account as well as mortality, expense, lapse, claims experience, taxes, and other experience of the participating block of policies. Changes in the dividend scale do not affect the guaranteed premium, guaranteed cash values, or guaranteed death benefit amount. A copy of Equitable Life’s Dividend Policy and Participating Account Management Policy can be found on our website at www.equitable.ca.
** This applies to all new and active policy loans, including automatic premium loans. This change is for Equimax® policies that have a 9-digit policy number beginning with a “3” or an “8”. Some older policies may have other loan rates as they are based on the prime interest rate. - Take advantage of our online services today!